Thursday, 23. April 2015, 18:30 – 20:00 h
At the University of Zurich, Rämistrasse 71, 8006 Zurich, KOL-G-201 (Aula)
Complex problems always need complex solutions - or so we think. This would also be correct in a world in which all risks are known, but not in an uncertain world. There, simple heuristics can lead to better decisions than complex statistical software packages. A heuristic is a strategy that ignores part of the information. In his lecture, Gerd Gigerenzer gives an insight into his research, which shows that simple, intuitive rules often lead to better results than complex calculations, and he explains why and when this is the case. More information, more calculation, more time is not always better.
Gerd Gigerenzer has been Director at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development since 1997 and of the Harding Centre for Risk Competence, Berlin, founded in 2009. His previous positions include Director at the Max Planck Institute for Psychological Research, Munich, Professor at the University of Chicago and John M. Olin Distinguished Visiting Professor at the University of Virginia. He has received numerous awards, including the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) Award for Best Journal Article in the Behavioural Sciences, the Association of American Publishers Award for Best Book in the Social Sciences, as well as the German Psychology Award and the Communicator Award. His multi-award-winning non-fiction books Das Einmaleins der Skepsis, Bauchentscheidungen: The Intelligence of the Unconscious and Risk: How to Make the Right Decisions have been translated into up to 18 languages. He is working with the Bank of England on the project "Simple heuristics for a safer world". He trains managers, American federal judges and German doctors in the art of decision-making and in dealing with risk and uncertainty.